a contrarian's market sentiments

061228 - Frustration!

2006-12-29T02:02:00.000-08:00

The other morning i got into an argument with my mom because she is in love with this stock called WCG and i told her it was going down. This was last week friday, it's currently in the red.

This is a prime example of how ignorance can destroy you in the market. she refused to read a 5 page report i made for her with charts, drawings, and articles of things explaining why the market was going down, and how her beloved WCG was going higher no more. Of course, i told her to buy gold. since then, gold is up 10+ points. a very nice gain for me, and a very nice loss for her. Regardless, she should have done her own research! This is why EVERY book that teaches you about stocks says to DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! it makes me sad to watch her lose money. oh well.

New years is right around the corner. if you're into tech, watch them charts and place your stops. if not, "go for the gold!"

-minitrader

061225 - Merry Christmas

2006-12-25T23:59:00.000-08:00

To all my readers, Merry Christmas & a Happy New year to you all.

Tuesday morning is going to hurt a lot of people's pockets. the nasdaq confirms a breakdown of it's uptrending channel. that with various economical faults occuring at the same time, we're going to be hurting in the 2007 equities markets. if you are a chartist, now is the time to be bearish on the market. I remain bullish on commodities. Much thanks to the CIGA's at jsmineset.com for the following article from ML:

http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/46478_7_.PDF

-minitrader

061218 - China to dump $1,000,000,000,000 in US RESERVES

2006-12-19T01:02:00.000-08:00

There was an interesting article i read the other day about a decision China was considering. If this article is indeed true, my bet would be equities will suffer soon after China does sell off the dollar. I can say that this has solidified my position in my gold shares. again, my portfolio is 100% gold shares. on this weakness, i have a very good feeling about my position. hope you all have some too. here's the article:

http://www.halturnershow.com/ChinaToDumpUSDollars.html
CHINA TO DUMP ONE TRILLION IN U.S. RESERVES!
Tells visiting Bush administration officials they will not sit back and lose their shirts as U.S. Dollar collapses; they are getting out fast and large!BEIJING, CHINA -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver! China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday.According to this Senior source, China told the U.S. delegation they no longer have faith in U.S. Currency for several reasons:1) The Federal Reserve Bank ceased publishing "M3" data in March, making it nearly impossible for anyone to know how much cash is being printed. China said this act made it impossible to tell how much a Dollar is worth.2) The U.S. Dollar has lost upwards of thirty percent (30%) of its value against other foreign currencies in the recent past, meaning China has lost almost $300 Billion simply by holding U.S. Dollars in its reserves.3) The U.S. has no plans whatsoever to reduce deficit spending or ability pay down any of its existing debt without printing money to pay it off.For these reasons China has decided to implement an aggressive sell-off of U.S. Dollars before the rest of the world does so. China reportedly told the US delegation; "we are the largest holder of U.S. Currency and if the rest of the world unloads theirs before we unload ours, we will lose our shirts."Early this week, in an unusual move, the Bush administration sent virtually the entire economic "A-team" to visit China for a "strategic economic dialogue" in Beijing Dec. 14 and 15.Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lead the delegation, along with five other cabinet-level officials, including Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez. Also in the delegation is Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman, and U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab.The Bush administration wanted to get China's cooperation in preventing a dollar collapse. The Hal Turner Show has been told the effort failed.According to the source, Fed Chairman Bernanke left the meeting "pale and in a cold sweat" as the implications of China's decision seemed to sink in.The implications are enormous: The U.S. Dollar is likely to collapse in value against all other major currencies as early as Monday, December 18.This would cause a worldwide sell-off of dollars, create almost immediate "hyper-inflation" in the US and also impact world markets at a level "worse than the Great Depression of 1929."Arabs to the rescue?In a strange twist of fate, Arabs and OPEC may come to the rescue of the U.S.!Senior officials in OPEC made clear that they too would be severely harmed if the U.S. Dollar collapsed, and hinted they "would not be inclined to sell oil to any particular nation that intentionally caused such a collapse."This was a thinly veiled threat to China, which depends heavily on OPEC oil for its rapidly developing energy needs.The OPEC officials even went so far as to say "Since China lacks the ability to project their military power, OPEC nations need not worry about any Chinese military response to an oil cut-off."Such brutally candid remarks will not sit well with China; and signal ominous things for the U.S. .Arabs and OPEC will want something in return for saving the U.S. from economic collapse and it is already widely speculated what they want will be a complete change in U.S. backing of Israel in the Middle East.If such demands are made by the oil-rich Arabs, the U.S. would be left with little choice but to virtually abandon the jewish state to preserve itself.

061212 - will equities remain strong in 2007?

2006-12-12T21:41:00.000-08:00

i've been saying for some time now that the markets are overbought on "irrational exhuberance." After all, how can a market stay bullish when it's economy has a triple account deficit with NO means of alleviating it's deficit. Foreign banks are already diversifying out of the $USD and oil markets are also converting from dollars to euros. I'd be very careful when picking up stocks. I suspect a market crash soon after companies start to report lower corporate earnings in 07.

From a technical perspective in a weekly chart, you can see that the markets (nasdaq, s&p, dow jones etc) are all overbought and look like they are entering a consolidation period.

this is an interesting article probably put a wrench in the current momentum of upward movement:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2006/12/12/financial/f122859S48.DTL

Basically, the US Treasury has taken over the Federal Reserve. Bernanke and Paulson say they are fighting inflation while they gloat about lowering interest rates. they say our economy is doing fine when the housing market is collapsing in front of their very eyes. i don't believe i've seen a very positive economic report in quite some time. You could only imagine how much of a clown Bernanke currently looks to Bank Presidents of other countries.

I myself will add more to my short position on a few stocks that i've chosen and will liquidate my long position in tech. I am very bullish on base metals, esp gold as it's bull movement is inversely related to the $USD.

that's all for now.

my words are only of speculation. they should not be heavily considered, if at all while making your own decisions in the market. it is highly suggested you do your own technical and fundamental research before making a decisive decision in entering or exiting any position.

-minitrader808